When the average sales price of a single family home in Mecklenburg County is combined with the current interest rate for a 30 year mortgage, the result is a house payment of $3211 for principal and interest, then add tax and insurance. It could be that I’m just an old guy, having been watching these stats as a Realtor for over 20 years, but does this boggle anyone else’s mind?

My curious mind always enjoys reflecting on the changes over time and thankfully I’ve recorded these stats month after month since 2004. While the current housing payment represents a near all time high, I wondered what the recent low might have been, especially when the interest rates were lower. Looking back I discovered that the lowest house payment since I’ve been tracking was just over twelve years ago in February 2012, when the average sales price was $191,895 and the interest rate was 3.9%. Those numbers combined yield a house payment of $723.21. What?? Can you imagine?? Makes me want to go back in time and buy as much real estate as I possibly could. Yet, during that time period, the number of home sales were at a near low. Why weren’t people buying with a fury?

I lived and worked through that time period as a broker and I remember it like it was yesterday. It was uncertain and scary! People were afraid to buy houses. It reminds me of the Warren Buffet quote, “When people get fearful, I get greedy and when people get greedy, I get fearful.” February 2012 was also the time when the market began to recover. In fact, people did start buying with a fury but it took time to build up. And in the process, prices and rates went up.

Fast forward to now, and we are at an all time high for home prices and house payments. But the numbers also show that the number of home sales began slowing down in 2021. Year over year, since then the number of sales has trended lower even though the population of Charlotte has increased. Now, in 2024 we are back at very low home sales levels which indicates once again that people are afraid to buy. (Or given low inventory, it could also be that sellers are afraid to sell.) It took about three years for home sales to hit a low during the great recession. That’s about how long sales have been slowing this time around. Is history repeating itself? Is now a good time to get greedy?

While you ponder that question, here’s a summary of the stats for single family homes in Mecklenburg County in September compared to the previous month and again to the same month last year:

• Home sales are down 11% from last month and even with last year.
• Average sales price is up 1% from last month and 8% from last year.
• Median sales price is down 1% from last month, but up 7% from last year.
• Average price per square foot is up 2% from last month and 7% from last year.
• Sale to list price ratio at 99% is unchanged from last month and last year.
• Average time on market is up 21% from last month and 36% from last year.
• Pending sales are up 6% from last month and 2% from last year.
• Supply is down 8% from last month, but up 57% from last year.
• Mortgage rates at 6.44% are up from 6.2% last month, but down from 7.57% last year.
• Average house payment is up 3% from last month, but down 4% from last year.

** Data from Canopy MLS