Who said you can’t time the market? If you have been following my blog you know that while its really hard to time the economic cycles of the market, predicting seasonality is a breeze. I’ve been tracking real estate data since 2004 and one thing that never fails is the rise and fall of sales and home prices in any given calendar year. Each year the market peaks in June/July and it bottoms out in January/February. And the difference in prices can be as much as 10%….that’s a huge discount when you are talking about a purchase that is hundreds of thousands of dollars!
The season for buying real estate at a discount is almost here. For any buyers that want to get a “bottom of the annual market” deal….the time to start searching is fast approaching. To time a purchase at the bottom, which means a closing between November and February, smart buyers need to start watching the market now.
This year’s market stats already show the pattern will be the same in 2015. While its been a really great year for sales, the market is definitely starting to slow as we enter fall. This week we’ve published the stats for August home sales as compared to the prior month and again to the prior year. The numbers are mostly up from last year, but they are also down from the previous month. Time on market, which has been falling consecutively since February, has finally started to turn back the other way and is climbing again. Good sign for buyers looking to get a deal from an anxious seller who might find the market is not as hot as it was earlier this year.
Here’s a summary of the numbers:
– Home sales are up 7% from last year, but down 9% from last month.
– Average home price is up 2% from last year, but down 2% from last month.
– Median sales price is up 7% from last year, but down 2% from last month.
– Average price per square foot is up 2% from last year, but down 2% from last month.
– Average time on market is down 4% from last year, but up 6% from last month.
– Pending home sales are up 14% from last year, but down 3% from last month.
– Housing supply is down 17% from last year and down 6% from last month.
– Mortgage rates remain mostly unchanged from last year and from last month.
– Average housing payment is about even with last year, but down 4% from last month.
Come on buyers…what are you waiting for. Real estate is about to be on sale!!