Around this time each year, I get excited to look closely at the real estate market statistics and evaluate where the market appears to be headed. Yes, I know I am a data geek and have been told that for years.
By July, the market stats for the full busy selling season are in and we can see how things compare to prior years. That’s because there is a seasonality to real estate sales in Charlotte. Sales typically hit a low point in the winter months of December and January and are reflected in low home sales in January and February. Then as nature turns things to green during spring, so too do buyers and sellers of real estate begin to conduct more business. That activity generally grows through May and then cools off as schools let out and summer kicks in.
This week we’ll release our monthly E-newsletter reporting the stats for Mecklenburg County home sales comparing June to the prior month and again to the same month last year. While prices have continued to see healthy growth over last year, the stats show a clear slow down in demand both from the prior month and from the prior year. For example, home sales in June were down 12% over last year even though the average sales price was up 5%. This can be explained easily by the theory of supply and demand! Prices and interest rates are rising which is having an impact on buyers ability (and motivation) to buy.
One factor that hasn’t shifted in an opposite direction for real estate, however, is the housing supply. The supply in June is lower than the prior year by 4%. Until we begin to see the supply statistics climb year over year, we won’t be able to say that the market has fully shifted in an opposite direction. That change is inevitable as in any cyclical environment.
It is still a great time to be a seller. In a slowing market, this just means that it is important to be very realistic about market values when setting a listing price. Never fear though, when you are working with our team we’ll always be sure to help you stay current with a strategy relevant to the current market.
Here’s a quick summary of all the stats for June:
- Home sales are up 1% from last month, but down 12% from last year.
- Average sales price is down 2% from last month, but up 5% from last year.
- Median sales price is down 3% from last month, but up 2% from last year.
- Average price per square foot is down 1% from last month, but up 7% from last year.
- Average time on market is down 16% from last month and 14% from last year.
- Pending sales are down 7% from last month and 10% from last year.
- Supply is down 2% from last month and 4% from last year.
- Mortgage rates at around 4.6% are even from last month, but up from 3.9% last year.
- Average house payment is down 2.5% from last month, but up 14% from last year.