The Changing Tide

Summer vacations often take us beach side where, if you’re anything like my family, you spend full days sun bathing, reading books, building sand castles, digging moats around them that you fill with endless buckets of water and, of course, swimming and boogie boarding over the waves.  Sound familiar to anyone else?  We typically arrive early in the morning and stick around to watch the sun set.  Although super relaxing, the hours fly by and it’s dark before we know it. 

Carolina Beach even has a sand bar that we love to swim out to, or depending on the tide, walking is more like it.  That’s the funny thing I’ve noticed at the beach over the years as my kids have grown up.  Timing is everything.  Our activities entertain us for hours at a time, but they can also distract us from the changing tide.  If we play too long in the sand, and then decide to head out to the sand bar or ride the waves on our boogie boards, the water may be too rough and no longer feels safe or appealing.

Just as gravitational pull is constantly shifting the tide, buyers’ and sellers’ ability to move forward on home sales is constantly changing.  If someone seeks to understand if the tide is coming in or out, staring at the ocean for a few minutes isn’t going to give enough perspective.  Before deciding it’s safe to enter, we rely on tide charts that experts provide.  Jumping into the real estate market to buy or sell a home without studying the statistics is a lot like jumping into the ocean unprepared.  If you’re going to successfully buy or sell a home for the best price possible, studying the stats that experts provide is the way to go.  Here at the W Realty Group, we study these numbers every day, and we can tell you the real estate tide is slowly changing.

For the first time in years in Mecklenburg county, the supply of homes actively for sale is over a full month.  A balanced market where neither the seller nor the buyer has the upper hand is considered a 6 month supply of homes.  Simply put, this means it would take about 6 months for the current inventory to sell.  While the sellers still have the upper hand today due to less than a 6 months supply, this number is constantly changing, making the monthly and yearly trends important.  The June stats show us the supply has almost doubled since May and it’s up 86% from this time last year.  Interestingly, that’s about the same percentage that rates have risen since last year as well.  Until the inventory comes into balance, prices will continue to rise.  But be assured, we will carefully track and share the data with you to give you the perspective you need to make the best real estate decision.  Don’t worry.  We won’t let you or your family get stuck in a rough tide. 

Here is a sneak peek at this month’s market stats comparing single family home sales in Mecklenburg County for June to the prior month and the same period last year:

  • Home sales are up 6% from last month, but down 10% from last year.
  • Average sales price is up 4.5% from last month and 19% from last year.
  • Median sales price is up 2% from last month and 23% from last year.
  • Current sale to list price ratio is 103%
  • Average time on market is up 22% from last month and is consistent to last year.
  • Pending sales are down 9% from last month and 19% from last year.
  • Housing supply is up 44% from last month and 86% from last year.
  • Mortgage rates at 5.52% are up 29 points from last month and up from 2.98% last year.
  • Average house payment is up 8% from last month and 60% from last year.

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